12 Apr 2017

Biting the Ballot. The local elections on 4 May could prove atypically significant

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It can hardly be claimed that election fever is sweeping the country. Despite this, the extensive series of contests in England, Scotland and Wales to be held three weeks tomorrow are both a very substantial test of public opinion and could well prove atypically significant for a variety of reasons. Almost every part of the UK except London and Northern Ireland will see the polling stations open. As there are to be no European Parliament elections in the UK in 2019 this will actually be the closest we get to a full-scale national political contest this side of the general election due in May 2020.

These elections also involve an innovation. There are to be six contests to be the directly elected Mayor in significant conurbations. These are Greater Manchester (where former Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham is the Labour contender and favourite), Liverpool City Region, the West of England (centred on Bristol), West Midlands (based around Birmingham), Tees Valley and an East of England region which combines Cambridge and Peterborough. The model here is based on London, which is perceived to have benefited from the creation of its own Mayor almost two decades ago. This is the most fundamental attempt at devolution within England and it could create local figures with a serious national, as well as regional, profile who thus become political leaders of consequence.

Added to this, there are elections in all 27 county councils in England which have a two-tier structure of local governance (i.e. county and district) which is most of them plus seven single-tier authorities (Cornwall, Durham, Northumberland, Shropshire, Wiltshire, Isle of Wight and Isles of Scilly). Finally, the metropolitan borough of Doncaster has elections for both its Mayor and its Council, while North Tyneside is holding a contest for Mayor only. Plus there is a parliamentary by-election in Manchester Gorton, which in theory should be a breeze for the Labour Party, but a bitter selection battle which led to the creation of an ethic minority only shortlist of candidates (partly as a ruse to block a white man favoured by the Momentum organisation) might allow the Liberal Democrats to do rather well.

Scotland and Wales are to witness an even more intensive democratic experience. All 1,223 seats in every one of the 32 councils north of the border will be fought (on the single transferable vote basis, which means very few, if any, will see a single party control a majority in a local authority). In the Principality, every one of the 1,271 seats in 22 councils will witness a contest (but on the first-past-the-post electoral system, which is used in English local elections except for the elected mayors. There, the supplementary vote method, a variant on the Alternative Vote model, will be deployed).

All of which makes for a lot of ballot papers. What trends of importance might emerge from them?

The elections will be seen as a major test of the comparative popularity of the main party leaders

In ordinary circumstances, one would expect the governing party to do rather badly in mid-term elections. This is particularly true for the second or third year in to a Parliament. If the opinion polls and the pattern of local government by-elections of late are any indicator, however, this may well not be the case in 2017. Most of the English elections were last fought four years ago in May 2013. This was not quite the electoral high point of Ed Miliband’s leadership of the Labour Party (that was May 2012) but it was close to it. The Conservatives lost a substantial number of seats on that occasion.

It now appears that this might be reversed. The national polls put Theresa May and her party well ahead of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party, but turnout will be relatively low and this will deflate the Conservative advantage. Nonetheless, Rawlings and Thrasher, the leading academic experts on English local elections, are expecting the national vote equivalent to be Conservatives 31% and Labour 29% with a net shift of fifty council seats moving from the Opposition to the Government.

A Conservative ‘win’ in these elections, especially if it is compounded by victories in some of the Mayoral contests (the West Midlands is the prime contender), which on paper Labour should take, will heap yet further pressure on Mr Corbyn and his allies. While no one is expecting him to quit or for there to be yet another leadership election this September, a poor Labour performance would make it less likely that the trade unions would support the proposed rule change to be debated at the party conference, a change that would lower the percentage of MPs required to nominate a candidate in future leadership elections from the present 15% to 5%, meaning the hard Left could always put one of its own on the ballot and hope to retain control once Mr Corbyn goes.

The elections are also a crucial test of the relative standing of UKIP and the Liberal Democrats

In a feature of contemporary British politics admittedly only of interest to really sad people (such as myself), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats have been in a tussle for third place in the opinion polls for some months now. The Liberal Democrats, though, have historically overperformed their national standing in local elections and that is likely to be particularly pronounced this time. UKIP, which has been consumed by torrid factionalism ever since the referendum outcome that it wanted to occur took place, could be in for a dire time in these contests. It has no chance of winning any of the races to be an elected Mayor and is destined to lose a large proportion of its council seats in England. The Liberal Democrats, by contrast, could be the biggest single winner among the political parties.

This is in part because, as noted previously, so many of these elections are taking place in seats that were last fought in May 2013. That was the absolute zenith of UKIP support in local government and the height of Nigel Farage’s electoral powers. In that year, UKIP won the equivalent of 22% of the national vote (almost double what they would ultimately achieve at the 2015 general election) and seized 145 additional council seats as a consequence. In many areas they took votes from the Liberal Democrats, which ideologically might seem very strange but in practice makes some sense as UKIP acquired a claim on the ‘protest vote’ which the Liberal Democrats sacrificed by being in power. Nick Clegg and his supporters thus recorded only 13% of the national vote in May 2013.

This time, UKIP looks set to fall to around 10% of the projected nationwide vote while the Liberal Democrats could more than double that number. A result like that would trigger even more fratricide within the ranks of UKIP, possibly even leading to an outright implosion with the party entering a death spiral. All three of the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats would hope to benefit from this event.

What sort of ‘mandate’ will the SNP be able to claim from the Scottish local elections?

While the local elections in England (and indeed Wales) might not have triggered much excitement yet, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP will be doing the best they can to turn the local elections in Scotland into a de facto endorsement of her demand, backed by the Edinburgh Parliament, for a second referendum on independence. Her chances of being able to claim some sort of ‘mandate’ are quite high, although much will depend on turnout.

The SNP are assisted by the fact that, unlike England, these seats were last contested in May 2012, not May 2013, before the point at which the Scottish Labour Party suffered its massive meltdown. Back in 2012, the SNP only led Labour on first preferences by a minuscule margin (32.3% versus 31.4%, with the Conservatives way back on 13.2%). It is a safe bet that those figures will be different next month. How much they are will be important. If the SNP are very clearly in first place (as is likely), then the chance of a 2019 referendum is sizeable.

Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA


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