22 Feb 2017

By-election Blues? Labour awaits the results in Copeland and Stoke Central

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Thursdays in February are not normally the stuff of much significance in British politics. Tomorrow could well prove to be an exception. By-elections are taking place in Copeland in Cumbria and Stoke Central in the heart of the Potteries. Both have been caused by the resignation of sitting Labour MPs who have abandoned the House of Commons to take up more rewarding positions elsewhere (at the Sellafield Nuclear Plant and the Victoria and Albert Museum respectively).

This alone says something about the state of contemporary political life. In ordinary circumstances, such contests would be dull affairs with the Opposition expected to retain each seat by a large margin albeit with a low turnout. These are far from ordinary times, however, and the Labour Party is struggling to keep control of the two constituencies with a vigorous challenge by the Conservatives in Copeland and an unpredictable fight in Stoke where UKIP would appear to be their main rival but, with the Liberal Democrats putting on a decent showing from a very low base, the Conservatives could end up winning by default.

Of the two battles, it is Copeland where Labour is in most danger of losing. It is a two-horse race. The Sellafield site is by far the largest employer in the area. Jeremy Corbyn’s antipathy to nuclear power is long-standing even if he has sought to dilute it in recent weeks insisting that there is “a place” for this form of energy supply in the future (what sort of place is not quite obvious). He has not been in the seat campaigning for weeks and he is invisible in the election material being distributed. In so far as humanly possible, Labour is seeking to hang on by stressing the merits of their candidate, a host of local issues and making the most of unease about the state of the NHS and social care provision.

This might work for them but they are clearly nervous about ‘the Corbyn factor’. The Leader of the Opposition might not feature on his own party’s literature but he is all over that of the Conservative Party’s contender. Theresa May made the seven-hour round trip by train to the seat this time last week which suggests that her advisers believe that they can take a constituency from the Labour Party, which would be the first time a Conservative Government has done so since 1960. The bookmakers have them as the clear favourites but it would be a supreme achievement to record a victory. It does, though, look on.

The Stoke Central tussle should logically be better for Labour. This is in many respects a textbook safe seat for them which they have held for a very long time and in which they have deep roots. It was, nonetheless, an atypically strong pro-Leave seat in the EU referendum and UKIP were in second place at the 2015 election (if only by 33 votes over the Conservatives).

Paul Nuttall, the new UKIP leader, instantly decided to raise the stakes by putting his own name forward as a candidate. This may prove to be a miscalculation as he is not from the region and his various ‘misstatements’ as to whether or not he lost close personal friends at the Hillsborough disaster of 1989 have served as a reminder of his previous ‘post-truth’ elaborations such as the claim that he was once a professional footballer (he was not), has a doctorate (he does not) and he was invited to serve on the board of a prestigious charity (no such offer was made).

He has become the story in a way that is damaging to his own party (who would have been better off choosing a worthy local resident instead) and this may prompt some of those who are disillusioned with the Labour Party to make the ironic choice of defecting to the pro-EU Liberal Democrats rather than to the anti-EU UKIP to make their protest. Any such division of the non-Labour vote will assist the chance of Labour clinging on to the constituency.

If Labour loses one or other seat, media speculation about Mr Corbyn’s future will intensify. What is the likelihood that he will either stand down or be forced out of his position in the near future?

If Mr Corbyn does not want to quit he will be very hard to depose

It could be that Mr Corbyn is aching to return to his allotment. He can hardly be enjoying his present employment which this time two years ago he could never have imagined himself acquiring. His poll ratings are dire and so many of his colleagues either refused to serve under him from the outset or resigned thereafter that he has a Shadow Cabinet that is far more ‘Shadow’ than ‘Cabinet’. If he wants to return to a normal life, then by-election defeats would be an entirely respectable alibi.

Yet if he does not wish to do so, or, perhaps more relevantly, if his inner circle assert that he should stay, then deposing him is exceptionally difficult. Passing a no-confidence motion among his MPs was attempted last summer and despite an overwhelming 172-40 vote against him he did not go. A full-blown leadership challenge would have to be launched, which would be Labour’s third contest for the leadership in three years, and there is no evidence that the now 500,000 strong membership (Labour is now the largest political party in Europe) would be any less inclined to re-elect him. It is unlikely, therefore, that any such attempt to depose him would be made. In so far as his enemies have any sort of strategy to depose him at all, it is akin to one of a state of siege and his starvation.

His allies on the other hand have every incentive to carry on even if it is with meagre rations. As the rulebook of the Labour Party stands, any contestant in a leadership election would need to have the nominations of 15% of Labour MPs/MEPs and no Corbynite champion would obtain that. There is a motion down for the Labour Party conference in September which would cut that to 5% and hence allow the hard left to keep control over the party machine and organisation. So even if Mr Corbyn desperately wanted to retire, his supporters would implore him to remain where he is at least until the conference and throw the kitchen sink at changing the rules at that moment.

Even if Mr Corbyn went swiftly, it is not obvious who his successor would be

Mr Corbyn could, of course, disregard such pleading and just depart of his own volition. He would not be replaced by an individual of his own precise stripe but to win the leadership election any aspirant would have to convince a majority of what is now a very different sort of membership to that of the past to endorse them. This would mean tacking to the left and then (presumably) moving back to the centre ground at a later date. This might not be an easy enterprise to undertake.

There is also the fundamental challenge that the possible leaders who might appeal to the wider electorate (Keir Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary, for example) have little appeal to the membership, while those with potential appeal to the membership (Rebecca Long-Bailey, the Shadow BEIS Secretary, for instance) would probably be too radical for the public at large.

Besides which, few people who are not political obsessives have heard of any of these characters. The best that Labour could hope for is that Tom Watson, the Deputy Leader, might emerge as a ‘Unity’ candidate but while he is a highly accomplished fixer he has had a colourful life and could be portrayed as the trade unions’ henchman.

The Labour Party’s difficulties extend beyond who serves as its leader

Mr Corbyn’s lack of credibility is almost a blessing in disguise for the Labour Party. It obscures the fact that the party faces an existential crisis, magnified by Brexit, as to what it is actually for. The party nationally is facing a version of the challenge that first engulfed it in Scotland, where it has moved from being the dominant political force to something close to an irrelevance. Its sister party in France is facing a similar debacle. What is the point of a party based so comprehensibly on the notion of social class when modern society appears to be becoming more fluid in how it aligns itself? That is a question bigger than will be found on the ballot paper for the two by-elections tomorrow.

Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA


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