Decisions, decisions. The parliamentary recess next week offers the Prime Minister opportunities
The government has not had the most enjoyable of times since the House of Commons returned to business on 9 October after the party conference season. It has been obliged to park its landmark European Union (Withdrawal) Bill until it decides what to do with the barrage of amendments that have been proposed to it. It has endured sustained sniping on a range of domestic issues and does not have the majority that it needs to crush dissent of this kind absolutely. Added to which, despite some positive news on the economy, not least the continued low levels of unemployment, Jeremy Corbyn has had his best run at Prime Minister’s Questions in his two years plus as the Labour leader.
All of which by itself would be enough for Theresa May to welcome the sheer respite that will be offered by the recess which the House of Commons will hold next week. The choice of dates is a curiosity. There is no seemingly logical reason why the House should not be sitting as it has not exactly suffered from an excessive workload in 2017 and if it was due a Half Term break, then this is the wrong week to have one.
The truth is this November recess is an odd historic hangover. It is there because the State Opening of Parliament was, until the arrival of the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, usually conducted in mid-November and it suited the government and the authorities in the House (plus a lot of MPs) to have a short break to prepare themselves and the parliamentary estate itself for the occasion. The norm now is to hold the State Opening in May or June but despite this, the November recess has remained in the calendar. So, the House is in recess from 7 to 12 November.
The existence of the recess – and hence the absence of immediate scrutiny from MPs – is always an opportunity for the Prime Minister and government. It can make announcements and decisions that would in other circumstances be controversial either with sections of their own parliamentary party or the Opposition (or both) and not receive the sort of instant grilling that might prove to be an embarrassment (or worse). Discontented MPs and Shadow Ministers can, of course, react on the airwaves but this is less collectively effective than a mauling across the dispatch box or the sight of backbench Conservatives aiming fire at their own administration. The issues concerned could, and almost certainly will, be raised once Parliament resumes again, but the chances are that the matter will seem a tad stale, passions will have abated and other questions will appear to be more relevant.
The politics of exploiting a recess is triply important for this Prime Minister. This is because, firstly, her survival depends on there not being a hostile motion of no confidence in her backed by 15% of Conservative MPs, and in practical terms this can only realistically occur when the House is sitting. Secondly, as a minority administration with potentially unreliable friends in the DUP, the legislative timetable is something of a minefield. Finally, it is imperative that she secures an agreement with the EU-27 at the December EU Council meeting that allows phase one of Brexit to draw to a close, a swift dash to an agreed implementation/transition period and for talks about the future relationship between the EU and the UK to start in earnest. This would help to lance the Brexit boil.
With all of that mind, what the Prime Minister does or does not opt to do in recess week will speak volumes. There are at least three areas where those who watch Westminster will examine closely.
The recess would be a smart moment at which to put more money on the Brexit table
The October EU Council meeting was a relative success in that it acknowledged that there had been some movement in the Brexit dialogue. It is also clear, nevertheless, that the outstanding matter is the money that the UK is prepared to put on the table to ensure that it secures an orderly departure, a ‘standstill’ implementation/transition period and a route to a future free trade agreement.
The expectation now in Brussels, Berlin and Paris is that Mrs May, having made an opening bid in the region of €20 billion in her Florence speech of 22 September, will next have to offer more. What is anticipated, in essence demanded, is not necessarily a new and much larger number (only at the end of the process will that emerge) but a more precise formula by which the UK acknowledges what it considers its legitimate legacy debts to the EU to be and how it intends to deal with them. This will, inevitably, be met in private by the operation of pocket calculators to see what the sort of ultimate sum might be, with €40-45 billion looking like the sort of number that may find favour.
Doubling the size of the ‘divorce settlement’ will not, however, be cheered to the rafters by UKIP, certain Conservative MPs and sections of the print media. Which is precisely why next week would be the best time for the offer to be made in as low key a fashion as is possible and in as technical a form of language (ideally incomprehensible) as the finest minds inside Whitehall can come up with.
If there is to be a Cabinet reshuffle at all, then recess week would be a rational time to hold it
In the aftermath of the Conservative Party conference and her own train wreck of a final speech, Mrs May indicated in a newspaper interview that she might conduct a Cabinet reshuffle “to put the best people in the best places” (but, in truth, to restore her own authority). The presumption was that such a change would involve Boris Johnson either moving out of the Foreign Office or out of the Cabinet altogether. Since then, little more has been said and speculation has subsided as a result. Yet if a decision on a reshuffle is to be made, doing it while Parliament is away would be astute timing.
The PM has three choices. She could see through the threat to target the Foreign Secretary, but this comes with the risk that he could jump before he is pushed and that he cites her new offer on cash to the EU-27 as the reason that he is resigning ‘on principle’. This is potentially radioactive territory. It might be better to use the week to send the signal that any reshuffle is ‘on hold’, postponed but not abandoned, until after the EU Council in December. Alternatively, a smaller reshuffle could be held, centered on the selection of a new Chairman of the Conservative Party, that did not involve the major players in the Cabinet but did allow alternative figures from the ‘Leave’ camp to acquire a higher profile. This would send a subtle shot across the bow to Mr Johnson that if he did attempt at any point to bring her down over Brexit, then, as in July 2016, he might not be the beneficiary of this.
If there is to be a major policy U-turn, then recess week would be the time to reach for the brake
There is never an optimal moment to execute a wholesale shift in policy. But if this is deemed to be essential (or unavoidable), then doing it in a week when neither the PM nor the Secretary of State concerned has to face MPs within hours of the announcement has its merits.
The prime candidate for this is Universal Credit. This fundamental change to the welfare state was the burning mission of Iain Duncan Smith as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. Its ambition, creating a single form of benefit in place of a bewildering set of them, is hard to disagree with. Alas, simplification in public administration is about the most complicated exercise possible.
The Treasury has hated UC from the start, fearing that it would prove incredibly hard to merge different benefits with different eligibility requirements and paid at different times and hence the whole thing would fall apart and have to be bailed out at considerable cost. It would love to see an indefinite pause to allow David Gauke, now the relevant Secretary of State, but a Treasury minister from 2010 to 2017, time to work out how to strangle the whole concept quietly. That this would hand Mr Corbyn a short-term political victory (on top of the concession already offered of making the telephone helpline involved free of charge) may be viewed as unfortunate but acceptable. If a move is to be made, next week may be the hour.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA
