Double Take? The chances of a second referendum on EU membership are extremely remote

The New Year started with a burst of speculation about a second referendum on the UK and the European Union. The unlikely catalyst for this was Nigel Farage who, perhaps as a shrewd distraction strategy from his party’s umpteenth leadership crisis, first mused that he was coming round to the idea of a second ballot as a means of ‘shutting up’ the so-called ‘Remoan’ faction and then wrote that he was not actually in favour of running another plebiscite, but thought that his supporters should be prepared for the possibility, such was the determination of some to stop Brexit. His suggestion (whatever it was precisely) was seized upon by those mostly in or associated with the Blairite section of the Labour Party who announced that they would happily take up the challenge.
The theoretical option of a second referendum is there. The obstacles to it are political, not legal. It is a matter of ambiguity as to whether a decision to trigger the fabled Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty can be revoked or not but ambiguity is to politicians what mud is to pigs. If they really want to roll in it, then they will find a means to do so.
As a matter of process, the operation would be as follows. By October, or early November, we should be at the stage where there is a legal document setting out quite how the UK would withdraw from the European Union. This is expected to be accompanied by another official agreement on how a transition period would work (the terms and its duration) and, at best, a distinctly high-level statement of principles as to the future relationship between the EU and UK.
Parliament has been promised (and has legally enshrined for itself) a ‘meaningful vote’ on this package well in advance of the anticipated day of departure (29 March 2019). If the House of Commons were so minded, it can vote to throw the matter back to the public with a straight choice between accepting the terms as offered or rejecting them and remaining in the EU on the current basis. Allowing for the disadvantages of holding such a vote in winter (when the turnout could be a lot lower than in June 2016, creating potential legitimacy doubts about the final result) and with the need for a campaign of a decent duration, then a referendum could be held on or about 7 March 2019. This in turn would mean there was just enough time to execute the mother of all U-turns.
That is the theory. What are the chances of it happening in practice? The short answer is ‘remote’. The longer and more sophisticated response is ‘extremely remote’. There are three reasons here.
There is no evidence of anything like the scale of shift in public opinion that would be required
There is very modest evidence of ‘buyer’s remorse’ among a small number of people who voted to leave the European Union in June 2016 but even this is contestable. The most reliable barometer of this is a monthly survey by YouGov which asks electors whether they think that the UK made the ‘right decision’ or the ‘wrong decision’ at the referendum. The recent trend has been for ‘wrong decision’ to hold a slight advantage, four percentage points in the last survey.
This could be taken as evidence that another referendum would produce a 52%-48% win for Remain if a further ballot were held but this is stretching the available information to the extreme. The vast majority of the country has not shifted its views on the issue. What has occurred is that about 3%-5% of those who backed Leave currently feel less confident that the process of departure will be as straightforward or truly as painless as they were promised by the likes of Messers Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove just over 18 months ago.
Given the obvious challenge that the first stage of quitting the EU proved to be, the real surprise is that this number is not higher. This is way, way short of a compelling claim that the country is crying out for a second referendum and would vote differently if it had one. Most polls suggest that almost all Leave supporters are against another ballot, and a substantial minority of Remain adherents also think that reopening the matter would be both divisive and undemocratic.
Could anything change this during 2018? There are two plausible means by which it might happen. The first is that the domestic economy tanks in the next six months, not merely slows, but contracts. This might move the needle to put a second referendum in the frame. Time is running out, however, for the predictions made via ‘Project Fear’ in 2016 to acquire the required credibility.
The second is that the terms for the UK’s exit would have to be so self-evidently awful that only a masochist would embrace the prospect of detaching themselves from Brussels. The chances are, though, that even if in the long-term the model that emerges (be it Switzada, Canland, or a new kid on the block as the name to fill the middle option, ‘Reverse Ukraine’ – to be outlined in a BVCA Insight soon) leaves the UK notably poorer as a nation, this is not likely to be obvious by the end of the year. The high-level principles that emerge will be capable of slick interpretation and spin by all sides of the argument.
Nothing can happen on a second referendum without Labour changing its position
As of today, the number of MPs who would vote for a second referendum if they had the chance consists of the 35 SNP members, 12 Lib Dems, a clutch from Plaid Cymru and the solitary Green, about a third of the parliamentary Labour Party, and Ken Clark and Anna Soubry from the Conservatives. This is some way short of a majority (to put it mildly). Any campaign for a second referendum thus requires at a minimum that the Labour leadership changes stance on Brexit dramatically and endorses a second referendum.
Labour has admittedly had more positions on this one than the Kama Sutra but (bar an economic meltdown as outlined above), it is really difficult to see how Mr Corbyn would move on from his current strategy of seeking to do enough on Brexit to keep both middle class Remain voters and working class Leave voters inside his tent, to a full-blown advocacy of another ballot on the EU at which Labour would commit itself wholeheartedly to staying in.
The blunt truth is that the inner core of the Corbynites care far more about securing control over the Labour Party (an exercise which is advancing nicely from their perspective) and rewriting the policies of the party (where victory is to come) than they do about the UK and the EU. They are happy to offer lip service to the closest ties to the single market and customs union if it keeps The Guardian on side, but it is not their mission. They are entirely content to criticise whatever deal is done by the Prime Minister and to vote against it in Parliament but they have no appetite for a second referendum. If Mr Corbyn does not budge on this, then there is no pressure at all on Mrs May and her Cabinet even to contemplate another ballot.
The Conservative Party would need to implode (and even that might not be sufficient)
For the sake of argument, nonetheless, let us assume that Mr Corbyn changes his mind and that he could deliver the overwhelming majority of his MPs to embrace a second referendum (and a few pro-Leave MPs in his ranks would hold out). Would we then all be heading to the polling stations? Perhaps, but not necessarily to reconsider the UK’s membership of the European Union. For what would be needed would be a large enough number of Conservative MPs to defy their leadership, the whips and their party activists and vote with Labour to hold a second referendum.
This would be a rebellion without parallel since the repeal of the Corn Laws in the 1840s. It would be political suicide for the individuals concerned. The Government would almost certainly declare such a vote to be one of confidence in itself so that a defeat would trigger not another referendum but the withdrawal of the legislation concerned and a snap general election. That election would then become the de facto second referendum with the choice being Corbyn (and Remain) or the Conservatives (and Leave). That prospect would, in the end, almost certainly be enough to prevent such a Tory revolt occurring.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA