26 Jun 2019

Double Trouble? Will the Conservative Party leadership election trigger an early General Election?

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It is less than a week since the parliamentary stage of the Conservative Party leadership election was concluded and events in the second and final stage have already evolved in an unexpected manner. A week ago, who would have thought that the first “issue” to emerge in the campaign would be who said what to whom or hurled what at whom in the early hours of Friday at a flat in London SE5? This is perhaps an indicator of more curiosities yet to come in the latest installment of the wild saga that is Carry On Up The Conservative Party! This has been a boon to the media who were horrified at the notion of the contest to become the next Prime Minister being a crashing bore of a coronation. Not much chance of that now (for a few more days at least). The Fourth Estate can happily switch from asking itself whether Boris Johnson can really re-negotiate a new deal with the EU to whether or not he can really re-negotiate a new deal with the various women in his life. You could not make this up.

The surreal start to this competition (which appears to be, in practice, a battle between Boris and himself rather than Boris versus the other one) has reinforced the sense in some parts of Whitehall and Westminster that the leadership election will be followed by a General Election, which would have to be held well before the scheduled date of Spring 2022. Further factors are fanning that fever, not least the forthcoming Brecon and Radnor by-election which will occur after a successful petition for a recall of the sitting Conservative MP who was found guilty of misrepresenting his expenses.

Such a backdrop would be bad enough but it is compounded by the strange decision of the individual at the heart of the controversy to want to stand again in the constituency and the even more curious sight of the Conservative Party both locally and nationally being willing to indulge this bizarre appeal to his electorate. The Liberal Democrats are red-hot favourites to seize the seat (which they have held in the very recent past). That outcome would cut the Conservative/DUP majority to a mere three seats. This further complicates the already seemingly impossible task of assembling a majority either for a specific means of leaving the European Union or for somehow avoiding that situation occurring.

Hence, the sense that it may be impossible to avoid an early return to the hustings. As that would involve several more weeks of drift and uncertainty, it is difficult to envisage such a prospect being cheered to the rafters by the public at large and the business community especially. Will it happen? While there are strong reasons to suspect that a ballot before mid-2022 is highly likely, an absolutely imminent one is more improbable. There are three scenarios currently doing the rounds. The first is that we could be at the polling stations this September/October. The second is that the exercise will be deferred a little longer to November/December. The third postpones the event until May 2020.

The Autumn Election

The argument that there would be a general election within three months or so is based on the following line of argument. It envisages Mr Johnson winning the leadership election but only after he has really painted himself into a corner on Brexit to shore up his internal base vote and with more “character” questions having emerged. In such a situation, the thesis is that Labour would move a no confidence motion in him immediately as he attempts to cross the threshold of 10 Downing Street and that a handful of kamikaze Conservative MPs exist who would be willing to bring not just him but the entire Government down. Under the strictures of the Fixed Term Parliament Act there would then be 14 days in which to test whether anyone else could win a confidence vote and when (as is all but certain) it is clear that no such figure exists, then a general election would automatically ensue.

The above is possible but not that plausible. Theresa May is due to step down on 24 July. Parliament is scheduled to enter the summer recess on 25 July. Labour could thus try to force a confidence vote but the timing is obviously exceptionally tight. The present opinion polls – which all suggest an extraordinarily fluid position now with The Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives all hovering around 20% of the vote, do not offer much incentive for Jeremy Corbyn to mobilise all of his forces to seek to push Mr Johnson out of office straight away. The Independent Group for Change (or whatever they are called this week) and the five other independents who were once part of them would have minimal reason to want a premature election.

Furthermore, while there are several Conservative MPs who think the notion of Mr Johnson as the First Lord of The Treasury is the worst joke that they have ever heard in their lifetimes, voting him and a ministry of their own colours down literally on day one before he has had the chance to do anything wrong (or anything at all) would be one hell of a stretch. To do so would not, in any case, force his demise as Conservative Party leader. All it would do would prompt an election that he might win anyway.

The Winter Election

As a result, a winter election in November or December looks more credible. This could come about by one of two means. The first is that a Prime Minister Johnson (or Jeremy Hunt) actually manages to extract the UK from the EU by 31 October as promised, re-unites the centre-right of politics as a consequence and decides to exploit their honeymoon period by rolling the electoral dice.

That cannot be discounted entirely but requires the new incumbent to have a lot of good luck. An alternative, especially if it is Mr Johnson at the helm, is that they cannot strike a fresh bargain with the EU and so attempt to take the UK out on October in an essentially “No Deal” strategy. This would be playing with fire. The House of Commons (and its Speaker) would not tolerate it without an affirmative vote in favour of such a No Deal stance and it is manifestly obvious that there is a clear majority in the House against a No Deal and that the procedural devices exist either to block it or to remove an administration and so a Prime Minister that aspired to make it happen. Mr Johnson may not be heart-broken by this in that it would allow him the opportunity to seek a short extension of Article 50 (again) so that an election could be held in which he would attempt to acquire a mandate for a No Deal Brexit. Under these conditions, the country would have a general election in this year.

The above cannot be ruled out entirely but it is an extreme possibility. It is more conceivable that if a Prime Minister Johnson appeared to be taking the Conservative Party down this route, an internal revolt would occur that led to him becoming the shortest serving PM since George Canning in 1827 (he died in office after four months). In which case, the United Kingdom would not be destined to face an early general election before the end of this calendar year but another Conservative ballot.

The Spring Election

There is also a third option which, because it is less immediate and involves fewer fireworks than the previously two outlined, has obtained less attention but probably deserves the most consideration. It is this: a new Prime Minister (let us assume it is The Blond One) comes in. They manage to rebrand the old Withdrawal Agreement (further editions of BVCA Insight will set out how). In so doing, they find a form of words that softens the Irish backstop dilemma. The DUP switch sides and almost all of the remaining European Research Group hold-outs come back on-board as well, if only to be certain that the 31 October deadline is met and a second referendum is averted. Having removed the UK from the EU in a legal sense, the Government moves on to a tax-cutting Budget in late November and a series of populist initiatives to court public approval in an utterly shameless display. Nigel Farage is put back in his box. Labour continues to be in disarray. Would a May 2020 poll not beckon?

Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA


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