Expectations Game. Local elections beckon that may be more a challenge for Corbyn than May

The Easter Parliamentary recess will (once again) remove any action in the House of Commons from the national headlines. When MPs return, they and the Whitehall system will find themselves under restraint through the rules designed to ensure that nothing can be said or done that might artificially influence the local elections to be held on Thursday 3 May. These will be portrayed by many media outlets, and others, as the ‘first test of national opinion since the June General Election’. In a strict sense, this is accurate but local council elections in the UK vary year-on-year as to their composition and their past electoral history, and this has a considerable effect as to the impact on wider politics.
So for 2018, as in any year, the first question to ask of a set of local elections is ‘when did they last occur?’ The answer in this case is straight-forward. With a few exceptions (of which the contest to be elected Mayor of the newly established South Yorkshire (Sheffield City Region) is probably the most prominent), every seat to be fought this May was last subject to an election in 2014.
This alone is a significant piece of information. Why? Because the year 2014 was one in which there were not only elections to local authorities in the UK but also the European Parliament. To avoid voters being asked to participate in elections twice in the same month (the European Parliament elections were to be held in the UK on 22 May 2014), the date for the local elections was deferred from its normal spot (the first Thursday in May) by three weeks. The hope was that turnout would be higher for both the council campaigns and (especially) the European Parliament election as a consequence. It was, on balance, but with a highly distorting consequence that will have a significant bias for May 2018.
UKIP did exceptionally well in the 2014 European Parliament elections, coming first overall. This had a positive impact on their performance in the 2014 local elections too as many of those voters also backed them in the local elections. The BBC’s estimated share of the national vote for the council elections in 2014 was, therefore, Labour, under Ed Miliband (remember him?), in front at 31%, the Conservatives on 29%, UKIP at 17% and the Liberal Democrats at 11%. Although UKIP (at what would prove to be their high-point at any purely domestic election) secured votes from past adherents to all three of the established political parties, they almost certainly hurt the Conservatives the most. The overall numbers in terms of councilors won or lost were that Labour gained an extra 324, the Conservatives lost 236, UKIP rose by 163 seats and the Liberal Democrats lost a shocking 310 seats. It is a solid certainty that UKIP will lose almost all (perhaps all) of those seats in 2018. Who gets them?
The second question to ask for this, as any, UK local election is where in the country are the contests to be held? The very short answer is ‘England’ as, bar the odd by-election, there are none elsewhere. The slightly less abrupt answer is ‘urban England’ (disproportionately). These ballots will occur in all 32 London boroughs, 34 metropolitan boroughs (including every council seat in Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle), on new boundaries in Kingston-Upon-Hull, in 68 district councils (in most cases only a minority of seats are to be fought, however), 17 unitary authorities, and the new South Yorkshire Mayor and Mayors in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.
In other words, this is territory which is already overwhelmingly controlled by the Labour Party. There are councils which the Conservatives hold where a loss would be symbolic and significant (such as Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth and Westminster in London and Solihull and Trafford among the Unitary Authorities and Swindon and Harrogate beyond that) but overall this happens to be a ‘Red Belt’ election where what is to be determined is how much the Labour Party will win by.
Finally, the last relevant question to be asked is ‘who votes in these sorts of elections?’ Turnout is unlikely to be much more than 40% (and could easily be quite some margin less). There are two types of voter who will be overrepresented at the polls. The first category are those who habitually vote in absolutely any election (the relatively affluent, more the white than non-white electors, and above all else the elderly). The second are those who are most aggrieved at the present point in time. As we have a Conservative Government, these two forces are operating against one another. The first should help Conservative candidates. The second might well (notably in London) subvert them.
The Expectations Game: Conservatives
Theresa May is in the helpful position that she almost cannot fail to exceed expectations. There is a widespread assumption that the Conservatives will take a massive beating on 3 May with London being the scene of absolute slaughter. This is despite the fact that her party is leading in most of the national polls and, as the aforementioned analysis has set out, really does not have that many seats up this year to lose. One can expect the Conservatives to make the most of this situation, and to talk down their chances in such apocalyptic terms that if they happen to hang on in, for example, the London Borough of Wandsworth (which they held comfortably even in the ‘Poll Tax’ ballot of 1990), that this will be a miracle on a scale that would make turning water in to wine look truly hum-drum. If the Prime Minister’s internal opponents are assuming that these election results will offer them an alibi to strike against her then, one might humbly suggest, they may be destined for disappointment.
The Expectations Game: Labour
Jeremy Corbyn, by contrast, almost needs to win everything to demonstrate that he is still making progress. As Labour did so well in the capital in the 2016 mayoral ballot and the 2017 elections, and have remained strong in the few capital-wide opinion polls since then, the expectation is that he will more or less drive the Conservatives out of anywhere close to Zone 1 or 2 of the capital city. It is also taken as a given that he will sweep the board in urban areas outside of London and show that he can make advances in the more urban parts of England outside of the largest cities. Anything else will be the catalyst for commentators and internal opponents alike to start musing that he peaked in 2017 by stealth and cannot mobilise his enthusiasts among the youngest sections of the electorate to turn out on a dull Thursday in May to ensure that his agenda is cheered in the likes of Adur and Gosport.
Particular interest will be taken in the London Borough of Barnet, which logically Labour should seize from the Conservatives but if they do not will be deemed proof that the Labour leader’s allegedly imperfect record on anti-Semitism has cost him dear among Jewish voters here (as it could also do, although the demographics are less substantial, in Hillingdon). Close attention will be paid also to those traditionally Labour areas in northern England where the Conservatives did their best in 2017. If he is not careful, Mr Corbyn risks himself becoming the story of the 2018 elections, not Mrs May.
The Expectations Game: Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats and their still comparatively new leader, Sir Vince Cable, have had a modest profile since the election. In part this was unavoidable (they only hold 12 seats after all) but in part it is deliberate. Sir Vince has focused his attention on rebuilding the smashed party ‘machine’ that he inherited, on privately wooing anti-Corbyn Labour MPs and on letting time pass so that the public starts to forget that his party (and indeed he himself) were ever in coalition with the Tories. He does, nonetheless, have to demonstrate that he is moving forwards. This election is a real chance for him to do so as he is starting from such a low base in 2014 and UKIP will probably struggle to hit 1.7% of the national vote this time, rather than 17% four years ago. There needs to be cause for Lib Dem cheer in terms of councilors won if not in councils regained. If not, whispering may get started.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA