General Election 2019: the result

Well, that’s pretty clear. After three and a half years of finely balanced division in British politics, a break has been made. Divisions will continue, but there’s no question where the authority lies now.
Mr Johnson has a majority which should give him five years in Downing Street, the ability to fashion Brexit as he sees fit, and the space to re-shape public services and much else if he is so minded. This is a very personal victory, following a calculation (a big gamble even) that going for broke with an election this winter was better than being hamstrung by the 2017 Parliament.
Earlier in the week it looked like things might not go so well. I had written last time that “a week remains, well, long enough for bad stuff to happen to any political campaign”. The ‘phone borrowing’ moment, when Mr Johnson was confronted by the picture of the ill boy resting on a hospital floor, and the ‘fridge hiding’ moment, when he appeared to seek refuge from an ITV interview in an industrial fridge, dominated entire days of TV coverage. And in the end made precious little difference.
This has indeed been the Brexit-defining election, in a way that 2017 failed to be. Mr Johnson led a much more energetic campaign with a much simpler message than Mrs May – ‘Get Brexit Done’ will now take its place alongside ‘Take Back Control’ as one of the most effective political slogans of recent times. In three words it crisply conveyed the ‘Leave’ message, whereas rival parties took a flabby three paragraphs at least to explain their ‘Remain’ alternative. By matching this slogan with a hard line on the transition period (“we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020”, as the Conservative manifesto makes plain), the Conservatives sought to cut off the oxygen to the Brexit Party. And it worked.
Mr Farage’s decision to stand candidates down in seats previously held by Conservatives gave Mr Johnson a much cleaner run (and had this been repeated in Labour held seats, Mr Johnson’s victory would have been even more emphatic). It also weakened the Liberal Democrats push in the south, where any surge would have required a split ‘Leave’ vote to exploit. Instead of a surge, there was in fact a retreat, with minor exceptions. For Labour there was more of a rout. Leaving personalities aside (all the leaders, it seemed, proved polarising), it was an unclear Brexit position and the most radical manifesto in recent memory that proved a losing combination.
That last point is important – aside from the sharper Brexit definition to the campaign provided by Mr Johnson, he was given a huge boost by the dilemmas faced by Remainers who could not fathom or countenance Mr Corbyn’s plans for the economy and taxes. Populist measures such as free broadband seemed incredible, or not strong enough to offset his other proposals. Add in their relentless campaigning along the ‘red wall’ and the Conservatives had found the winning formula. And, as a consequence, two political parties are this morning looking for new leaders.
One opposition party which is not is in Scotland. Along with the Prime Minister, the First Minister had a very good night too, and in doing so Ms Sturgeon sharpened the division about the future of the union. Taking Jo Swinson’s seat will be the biggest of the highlights for the SNP, but a net gain of 13 seats and an eight percentage point increase in vote share make this a highly significant result overall.
Where Mr Johnson now has a clearer path on Brexit, his constitutional calculations at home have become more complex. Losing half his seats and three and a half percentage points in vote share in Scotland is a rare, but critical, blemish on an otherwise very good night for him. Already the demands for ‘indyref2’ have been loudly made and we can expect a crescendo in the months ahead. The next Scottish Parliament elections are in 18 months’ time – can the SNP win a majority then, to echo 2011, and claim a mandate for the second poll? They will be feeling very confident about that today.
For now, it will be full throttle to get MPs sworn in, have the formal State Opening of Parliament and then get the Withdrawal Agreement approved. Then a Budget and the opening of the trade negotiations with the EU. The political authority is clear, as is the Prime Minister’s to do list. For our part we can welcome that clarity and the fact that the country will now get on with things which have been delayed or marginalised in recent years. Time to buckle up for an increase in pace and to cope with the consequences of the choices which will now be made.
Michael Moore
Director General, BVCA