General Election 2019: week six

One week to go and it will all be over. The election that is. And probably the appointment of the Prime Minister, too. Until recently the former (almost) always led to the latter, as majority party outcomes were the norm (so knowing who should form the government was straightforward). But in the past decade there has only been a majority once in three attempts – and a relatively small switch in current voting intentions would make it one in four, thus denying Mr Johnson the majority he must believe he is on course to enjoy.
Even if not a lot has changed in the polls in the past week, the consequences of any such ‘small switch’ explains the lack of complacency or sloth in his campaigning. This is prudent since, anecdotally, there seems to be enough uncertainty in the minds of some voters to keep the election alive. That aside, there are plenty of residual fears amongst pollsters and commentators about the reliability of their projections, too. And a week remains, well, long enough for bad stuff to happen to any political campaign.
On the voter uncertainty point, I have certainly been struck by the number of conversations I have had in the past few days where people who voted Remain are still weighing things up. One subgroup is anxious to avoid splitting the Remain vote and letting the Conservatives win; another is asking if the attempt to remain in the EU is worth what they see as the risks to the status quo if Labour wins. If this turns out to be the extent of the uncertainty, then Mr Johnson surely wins overall: he has garnered most of the Leave vote, it appears, and the tactical voting of the first Remain subgroup is probably not enough to undermine his prospects on its own.
Regardless of the outcome, whoever becomes Prime Minister has an ugly looking in-tray and inbox. Let’s set aside other priorities for now and focus on what happens beyond the 12 December on Brexit. A Johnson government will crack on with the Withdrawal Agreement ratification and we can expect that to be dealt with in a matter of weeks (subject to their Lordships, who will be itching to debate the provisions at length, even if they may prove unable to do much with them).
Meantime, the government has to establish its negotiating position on the trade deal (the first element of the ‘hard bit’ of Brexit) while probably living with a swift EU declaration of its opening position. Whoever moves first, this all has to happen at pace to maintain any hope of concluding a deal by this time next year. It is true, of course, as a former Coalition colleague reminded me this week, that if you only want a limited deal, it could indeed be done in that timeframe. But a limited deal would be about little more than trade in goods, not services - we would not be alone in pushing back against that.
The extent of any Conservative majority will be key to this dynamic, of course. A modest win might offer Opposition parties and the Lords the chance to water down or amend the Prime Minister’s plans. But that would require rather more effective cross-party operations than the last two Parliaments saw (one or two notable exceptions aside). A new Speaker and the departure of many Conservative ‘centrists’ diminish this prospect, too. So the European Research Group would probably have more leverage than any others.
A significant majority could empower the Prime Minister to ignore, or temper the effects of, the ERG and perhaps even let him reverse his declared position that he will not seek any extension to the transition period. I do not think I would be alone in being willing to cut him, or anyone else, some slack on this major point should he abandon the idea (thus committing what otherwise is the cardinal political sin of doing the opposite of what was promised in the election). But Mr Johnson’s willingness to use some of his political capital in this way may be completely fanciful and at the very least is far from guaranteed.
And the other mainstream outcomes? A minority Conservative result could leave us back where we started, with a no-deal Brexit looming back on the January horizon. A minority Labour result would be unstable, especially if Mr McDonnell’s statement that the party would seek to govern alone is more than just election signalling. Even if some form of (loose) left-of-centre alliance arrangements were achieved, the challenges of producing a new referendum (never mind winning it for Remain) would be significant, to be rather under-stated about it. Finally, a Labour majority is still there as a possibility (even if downplayed by almost everyone outside the Official Opposition). That would allow a referendum, almost certainly, but the non-Brexit priorities would probably then become rather more important*. Happily (or otherwise), we will know which of these it is to be very soon.
*If you wish to hear more on that you can obtain a recorded version of our webinar last Monday where the BVCA team looked in more detail at the policy prescriptions of all the main parties.
Michael Moore
Director General, BVCA
Poll Watch
Well this is it, the final Poll Watch of the campaign. The 2019 general election is only six sleeps away.
A total of 3,322 candidates will by campaigning until the bitter end when polls close at 10pm on Thursday 12 December. The Conservatives have 635 candidates standing, Labour 631, the Liberal Democrats 611, the Brexit Party 276, 36 from Plaid Cymru, and 227 independents.
It may not come as a surprise that the constituency with the highest number of candidates is Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip, with 12 people standing for election, including Count Binface, Lord Buckethead, and Yace Interplanetary Time Lord Yogenstein. It’s the only seat where more than 10 people are standing.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are 20 constituencies with just three names on the list, including Southport, Witney, Telford, and South Cambridgeshire. Men outnumber women about two to one in this general election, with 1,500 men standing compared with 850 women with 900 not listing gender.
Britain Elects Poll of Polls
Poll accurate as of 9am 6 December
General election spending
£140 million: 2017 election cost to taxpayers
£30,000: maximum party spend per constituency
650: UK parliamentary constituencies
£7,500: party donations above this amount must be declared
Source: Electoral Commission, Cabinet Office
At the last general election, a total of £41.6 million was spent by 75 parties and 18 campaign groups, with the Conservatives the biggest spenders at £18.6 million, whilst Labour’s outlay arrived at £11 million and the Liberal Democrats at £6.8 million.
Featured poll - YouGov London Swing
Tuesday’s YouGov poll suggests Labour are on 47%, up eight points from November but down from the huge 54.5% vote Labour had in 2017. Conservatives are up one point to 30%, which is still below their 33% in 2017. The Liberal Democrats are squeezed to 15%, down four but above the 8.8% in 2017, keeping alive the party’s hopes of making one or more gains, but the squeeze will ease Labour worries of a Lib Dem surge threatening its strongholds. Sian Berry’s Greens are also suffering a squeeze, down one to 4%, whilst the Brexit Party has almost evaporated as a significant force in London, down three to just 3%.
On a uniform swing, the findings imply that the Conservatives could take Battersea and Kensington from Labour, while Lib Dems would topple Zac Goldsmith at Richmond Park.
Has a Prime Minister ever lost their seat?
The Prime Minister is elected like any other MP. Of recent prime ministers, Boris Johnson’s majority of 5,034 in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is the smallest. Even at its lowest point, Margaret Thatcher’s relatively small numerical majority in Finchley translated into a 20% lead over the Labour candidate in her constituency. In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the 2017 general election produced a 10-point gap between Johnson and his Labour rival.
Two prime ministers have come close to losing their seats. In December 1905, Arthur Balfour resigned as Prime Minister in an attempt to force an election, but the leader of the opposition, Henry Campbell-Bannerman, instead formed a government and became PM. Balfour went on to lose his constituency at the election a month later. In the 1935 general election, Ramsay MacDonald was defeated, having resigned as head of the national government not long before the campaign started.
Commentators' corner
Each week I’ve been picking a blogger or commentator who has something interesting to say about the campaign and the election. This week it’s Politico’s Mark Scott on digital spending.
Most attention has focused on the activity of political parties, but third-party groups, including everyone from anti-Brexit campaigners like Best for Britain, to non-partisan non-governmental organisations like Friends of the Earth, have significantly outspent traditional parties since the beginning of the election period. That’s particularly true of Momentum, the Labour-affiliated group, which continues to be one of the biggest third-party spenders. In fact, almost two-thirds of Facebook political ads between 7 and 29 November has come from groups not associated with the political parties.
Read more here.
Well, that’s all folks from Poll Watch folks! I hope you’ve enjoyed the last few weeks and learnt a few things along the way.
I’ll be back with a BVCA webinar on 16 December with some thoughts and insights on the outcome of the election. Sign up here
Lisa Hayley-Jones
Director of Political & Business Relations