General Election 2019: week two

In the last election campaign Mrs May stirred controversy when she declared that there was ‘no magic money tree’ to address the public spending squeeze which was then seven years old. The nurse she told this to was not alone in being unimpressed by the Prime Minister’s argument. But the austerity orthodoxy (responsibility disclosure – it began during the Coalition of which I was a part) continued through the 2017 Parliament on the government benches.
Until Mr Johnson took over as PM, that is. Given the pledges he made in his leadership election and the Chancellor’s spending announcements in September, you might wonder if they will be quite as categorical as their predecessors in denying the existence of what Mrs May saw as an arboreal aberration. And after the Conservative election pledge to invest £100 billion over the next Parliament, a forest of spending rules are being bent in the process of divining new fiscal truths.
Of course, Mrs May’s target two years ago (yes, it really was that recent) was not the nurse, or her argument for a pay rise, but the pledges being made by Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell on behalf of Labour. More recently, having been out-done by the Chancellor’s commitment to a higher National Living Wage target during the party conference season (against the Shadow Chancellor, and many others’, expectations) there is no danger of a repeat on public spending commitments. Mr McDonnell’s tally has now reached a figure which raised nearly as many debt ceilings as eyebrows when he set it out this week.
We will return to these spending commitments, and other election promises, once the manifestos have been produced, but it is already clear that it is not just the Labour Party who are challenging conventional wisdom: should the Conservatives secure a majority, or lead the government in some other way, their spending and taxation stances will need more detailed scrutiny than we may have been used to over the past decade. Many business leaders will compare the Conservative and Labour positions and have a simple preference, perhaps. But making the comparison between old-style conservatism and this new version may also show up some stark differences.
As a result of these announcements, the early ‘phoney war’ of the election began to fade. And elsewhere candidates hit the campaign trail in earnest, though not always successfully, as some high-profile problems for cabinet ministers, and others, illustrated. But many familiar faces are already absent from the campaign, as the departure of many senior MPs from Parliament continued at pace. The decisions of Philip Hammond for the Conservatives and Tom Watson for Labour genuinely shocked onlookers and signalled a potential hollowing out of the centre ground in each of the main parties. The impact on the election campaign dynamic is uncertain, but the impact in the next House of Commons may be profound.
Former Chancellor Ken Clarke has been added to the growing list and this week, right at the end of his service, fulfilled his only formal duty as Father of the House. As ‘Father’, Mr Clarke oversaw the election of a new Speaker, a process which took many hours, but, unusually in recent politics, had an outcome in line with expectations.
The choice of Sir Lindsay Hoyle, a more consensual figure than his predecessor, it is believed, will be another big change for the new Parliament and a new government – he is less likely to use his role to create new precedents, or wield those that already exist, with the same brio as Mr Bercow. As we enter a crucial year for the UK’s departure from the EU, that may mean an incoming government regains the executive’s usual advantages in setting the parliamentary agenda, a vital power lost on many occasions during the parliament which has just been dissolved.
But that is for a few weeks’ time. Before then Brexit, spending pledges, challenges about fitness to govern and the colour (for which read ‘mistakes’) of the campaign will be on every channel. Things are beginning to get serious.
Michael Moore
Director General, BVCA
Poll Watch
It’s official: the election campaign is now in full swing. Only 34 more lovely days to go until voting day. With Parliament now dissolved, campaigning will be ramped up to the maximum dial possible. After a good start by the Labour Party (until yesterday at least), the Conservatives will be hoping for a more productive second week of campaigning but it’s not looking good. Overshadowed by Trump, the NHS, Grenfell, the resignation of Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns and Sky’s empty chair, to name just a few, the Conservatives need to get a grip on their messaging.
Britain Elects Poll of Polls
Turning once again to Britain Elects Poll of Polls – one of the UK’s leading poll aggregators and the ‘go to’ poll for politicians – we can see below a projection of what ‘probably’ would happen if a general election were held today. It factors all Westminster voting intentions into its formula alongside weightings based on general demographics, Leave/Remain vote, regional variation, anticipated turnout, and local historical performance.
A Conservative majority (maybe)
In a separate poll, Electoral Calculus calculates the make-up of the next House of Commons:
Conservative 384 (+66)
Labour 185 (–77)
SNP 35
Liberal Democrats 24 (+12)
DUP 9 (–1)
Sinn Fein 8
Plaid Cymru 3 (–1)
Greens 1
APNI: 1 (+1)
This would give us a Conservative majority of 118
TV debates
Tune in to ITV on 19 November to watch party leaders Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn slug it out (Jo Swinson is taking legal action after being excluded from this debate), and on 28 November turn over to Sky more of the same, although this time with the Liberal Democrat leader. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon isn’t too happy about being left out and has written to Sky, arguing: “the SNP is the third party in the UK parliament, the governing party in Scotland [and] the party most likely to retain this position and hold the balance of power after the election — there is no excuse for shutting us out.”
Manifesto watch
The 2019 Conservative manifesto is set to be more streamlined and strategically focused than the 40 pages of the much criticised 2017 document. Set to be published in the week starting 25 November, it will include a series of multibillion-pound spending commitments including freezing fuel duty, an extra 25,000 police officers and extension of free childcare. It may also include a £460 tax cut, with plans in the works to raise the threshold at which employees start paying National Insurance.
Labour Campaign Nuggets
Labour Deputy Leader Tom Watson’s decision to quit as an MP, but remain Deputy Leader until polling day, is a direct consequence of the Momentum drive to get him out. Watson was the vanguard of internal opposition to Jeremy Corbyn on the party’s Brexit policy, and a frequent critic of the leadership’s approach to tackling anti-Semitism within the party.
On the campaign trail in Liverpool, John McDonnell has announced plans for a new £150 billion fund to be spent in the first five years of a Labour government. This is earmarked to upgrade schools, hospitals, care homes and council houses. They have also pledged £250 billion over 10 years to drive the decarbonization of the economy. This makes up what the party is calling a ‘national transformation fund.’
Liverpool FC fan McDonnell has also stated he wants to break up the Treasury and move the unit responsible for the money outside of London and base it in the North, with ministerial meetings taking place outside of London.
Internal Labour Party consultations on their 2019 election manifesto ended this Wednesday. I hear the final document is being finalised on Saturday 16 November.
Wales, It’s Us
Plaid Cymru launched their biggest ever general election campaign entitled ‘Wales, It’s Us’.
Speaking in Anglesey, the party's leader, Adam Price, told supporters they were in a prime position to gain MPs. Plaid Cymru currently holds four seats, but with the impact of Brexit becoming ever clearer, they believe they can gain many more.
Elsewhere, the Green Party launched its campaign in Bristol this week, and in Glasgow, Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard kicked-off the party’s campaign north of the border, whilst Mark Drakeford, First Minister of Wales and the Leader of Wales Labour, launched the party’s Welsh campaign in Cardiff.
Meanwhile back in London, Nigel Farage unveiled 600 Brexit Party election candidates launch this week. Apart from the obvious, they also promised to abolish the House of Lords and reform postal votes.
Remain Alliance
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have formed an electoral pact, the ‘Remain Alliance’, agreeing not to stand against each other in 60 seats in England and Wales. The three parties all support another Brexit referendum and want the UK to remain in the EU. Labour declined to participate.
The LibDems will be the only party of the pact to stand in 43 seats, the Greens will be the only one in 10 seats, and Plaid will stand alone in seven Welsh constituencies, all hoping to pick up the Remain vote.
Government spending set to rise
Whichever party does win the election, government spending as a share of GDP looks likely to rise to levels not seen since the 1970s, according to a Resolution Foundation think tank report ‘The Shape of Things to Come’. Chancellor Sajid Javid’s recent spending round suggested government spending might reach 41.3% of GDP by 2023, while Labour’s stated plans could take it to 43.3%, well above the 37.4% average recorded in the two decades running up to the financial crisis.
With an aging population, the spend on health and social care is expected to rise, and the think tank says that tax rises may be needed to pay for the bigger state both parties now appear to support, never mind the tax cuts floated by the Conservatives.
Commentators corner
Mark Pack, author of ‘101 Ways to Win an Election’ and editor of ‘Liberal Democrat Newswire’, delivers daily comment from a Liberal Democrat perspective: twitter.com/markpack
ConHome delivers the same from a Conservative slant: twitter.com/ConHome
Whilst Labour List delivers campaign news and Labour Party debate: twitter.com/LabourList
Lisa Hayley-Jones
Director of Political & Business Relations