Grounded. Why the chances of Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister are fading fast

It is a not especially flattering indicator of the character of British politics at present that the main media area of interest concerning the vote on the fate of Heathrow Airport was where on Earth the Foreign Secretary might be in order to avoid that division in the House of Commons. One might have thought that the final approval of a £14 billion-plus infrastructure project, which was first seriously suggested more than fifty years ago, was worth a little more attention. Furthermore, it is not as if Boris Johnson’s absence proved pivotal in a Westminster cliff-hanger. The final tally was 415-119, a massive margin of victory for a scheme that has aroused controversy for many years and with, once again, far more Labour MPs rebelling against the official leadership line (albeit on what was a free vote technically, but with the advice to abstain) than the number of Conservative MPs dissenting.
If Mr Johnson had chosen to make that opposing tally 120 not 119 then he would have been obliged either to resign from the Cabinet or discover that his career had ended there much as it had started, namely fired with enthusiasm. This he was determined not to do and hence his secret dash in the direction of Afghanistan with his staff insisting that his removal from Parliament was co-incidence and not convenience (to which the response “Kabulsh*t” would not be inappropriate). In advance of his absence, the Foreign Secretary insisted to the London Evening Standard that his leaving office in the manner of Greg Hands, the DIT Minister and MP for Chelsea and Fulham, who did quit the front bench to enable him to oppose a third runway at Heathrow, would “achieve absolutely nothing”. His assertion was absolutely correct in one crucial way, but perhaps not in the sense that he meant it.
For the truth is that there is a strong case that British politics is at a phase where it has passed both “peak Corbyn” and “peak Boris”. If circumstances had meant that it was in Mr Johnson’s interest to storm out of the Cabinet now over Heathrow “on principle” and then take up the role of de facto leader of the internal opposition over the terms under which Brexit is now being dealt with, then it is reasonable to assume that he would have done so without compunction. That the thought does not appear to have flickered in his mind suggests that he appreciates that his star has waned but wants to remain at his post in case events evolve once more in his favour. The reality, however, is that his best chance of displacing Theresa May in 10 Downing Street was immediately after the surprising outcome of the 2017 general election and with every day that passes beyond that he is weakened.
What are the factors that are driving the chances of Boris become Prime Minister fast downwards?
He who wields the knife never wears the Crown
It has been one of the iron laws of leadership succession in the Conservative Party that those who are too closely associated with deposing the incumbent rarely if ever then replace them. Although the dictum is mostly closely associated with Michael Heseltine, who ran against Margaret Thatcher in November 1990 and brought her down only for John Major to succeed her, it has a wider history. Even Mrs Thatcher herself, who might seem an exception to the rule in that she challenged Edward Heath for the leadership in 1975, is not really a deviation in that she was drafted as a second choice once Sir Keith Joseph, who had been the preferred contender of the Conservative right-wing, had made one too many controversial speeches and ruled himself out of contention. He wielded the knife.
For a few days after the 23 June 2016 referendum on EU membership, it looked as if Mr Johnson might break this rule. He had certainly wielded the knife on David Cameron in deciding to take over the Leave campaign and in so doing not only hugely enhanced the chances of the UK departing from the EU but of Mr Cameron having to send for the removal vans almost immediately afterwards. Yet, In the end, though, the traditional axiom held true as Boris was in turn knifed by Michael Gove who knifed himself as part of this enterprise and as others in the Leave fraternity either knifed each other or also took a blade to their own flesh and blood, allowed Mrs May (who as Home Secretary should have really cracked down on all this knife crime) to become Prime Minister almost by acclamation. If knifing one PM and taking their place is very hard in Conservative Party culture, seeking to take out a second one and then seizing the Crown, Orb and Sceptre is verging upon the politically impossible.
The Foreign Office is today a gilded cage for those aspiring to be Prime Minister
Most commentators, indeed most citizens, were astonished when Mrs May appointed Boris to be the Foreign Secretary. He himself confessed to being “flabbergasted”. Not so BVCA Insight (see 13 July 2016) which argued that the new Prime Minister had strong incentives to want him inside the tent and that only the roles of Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary would be too senior to refuse without a total loss of credibility. He had no choice but to accept and enter a gilded cage as he did.
The title of Foreign Secretary is undoubtedly a grand one. It was also once an excellent berth from which to move on to become Prime Minister. In the post-war era there have been seven moments which have seen a new occupant of Number 10 installed between elections. The first four of these were 1955, 1957, 1963 and 1976. In three cases, Anthony Eden (1955), Alec Douglas-Home (1963) and James Callaghan (1976) the new Prime Minister was the former Foreign Secretary. In the other instance (Harold Macmillan, Chancellor at the time of the vacancy in Downing Street in 1957), the succession occurred in the aftermath of a foreign policy disaster (Suez) which hardly indicated that the Foreign Secretary (Selwyn Lloyd) should be called upon by Her Majesty to form a government.
Times have changed. Since then there have been three mid-term switches of Prime Minister in 1990, 2007 and 2016. Two of the victors were the sitting Chancellors (Mr Major and then Gordon Brown) and one was the serving Home Secretary (Mrs May). The Foreign Secretary came nowhere close to triumph on any of these occasions. Why? Because in the modern era to be Foreign Secretary is to be compelled to undertake a far larger number of overseas trips in the course of a year than previously. This takes the person concerned away from Westminster (and hence Conservative MPs, still the vital initial constituency in Conservative Party leadership elections) and marginalises them in domestic politics. This was compounded in Mr Johnson’s case by Mrs May’s swift decision to establish a new Department for Exiting the European Union and award it to David Davis, thus cutting the Foreign Secretary out of the front-line on Brexit. There are not many votes for PM to be won in Afghanistan.
Being the Mayor of London is not the same as the responsibilities of a senior Cabinet minister
Finally, there are the elements in this saga which relate to Boris Johnson himself. He was in many ways an extremely effective Mayor of London. He was re-elected in 2012, a very bad year for the Conservatives nationally and his legacy includes a successfully executed Olympics, a number of novel transport schemes and a skyline full of new but already iconic buildings. Yet the office of Mayor was absolutely ideal for his talents and temperament (as it was for Ken Livingstone). It is basically that of a cheerleader-in-chief. The specific responsibilities are limited (transport, crime and planning) and it is not difficult to delegate them. The odd misspeak or “gaffe” is inconsequential. Showmanship and a sense of the “big picture” are the coinage of the realm. None of that is true at the top of the Cabinet where mastery of detail is vital and careless words not only make adverse headline but have a real impact on real people (such as a woman detained in an Iranian prison). Like Prince Hal in Henry IVth, Part One, Boris needed to convince his colleagues at all levels that he could change to meet the new challenges that faced him. Few if any of them believe that he has or can. That is likely to prove fatal.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA