Phoney Fortnight. Parliament is back but the real action on the next stage of Brexit is deferred

After one of the shortest Easter recesses of modern times, the House of Commons returned to its duties yesterday. The early indications (predictably) are that it will not be an especially benign set of weeks before the session technically ends towards the close of May or beginning of June and a new Queen’s Speech is read to parliamentarians and so the nation. The Conservative Party is openly up in arms about the failure of the Government to have extracted itself from the European Union on time and the suggestion that it might contemplate an accord with Jeremy Corbyn to find a majority for a new version of the Withdrawal Agreement. Labour is only slightly more at ease with itself but has about a third of its MPs now determined that only a second referendum with “Remain” on the menu would be an acceptable price to pay for assisting Theresa May out of her difficulties. The Liberal Democrats are distracted by a forthcoming leadership election. The SNP, a forgotten but potentially crucial player in any next wave of parliamentary votes on Brexit, is taking stock of its best interests.
It is theoretically possible that behind the scenes and in the utmost secrecy the Government and the Opposition have reached agreement on a comprehensive accord on Brexit which they are poised to ram through the House of Commons in the next few days. It is also theoretically possible that Elvis Presley will be the keynote speaker at the BVCA Summit on October 10th with Lord Lucan appearing on a panel about technological innovation just before him. It is a judgement call as to which of the two notions is the more incredible. The politics of the moment mean that we are more likely than not to endure what is an essentially phoney fortnight in which cross-party talks that never had any chance of producing an out-an-out solution are wound down, with everyone taking care not to be blamed for abandoning them first without legitimate cause.
The real question is whether they can move on to produce a formula by which both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn could permit the House of Commons to conduct something somewhat stronger than mere indicative votes but which each side would regard as binding if a majority were to emerge for a proposition. Under such a scheme, the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration would be brought back with additional provisions around workers’ rights/consumer protection/environmental safeguards attached to them alongside a formula for more intense parliamentary scrutiny of “stage two” of the Brexit deliberations. There would then be two key amendments that both sides would encourage to be held but differ on how they organise their troops – namely on some form of customs arrangement with the EU and on a second “confirmatory” referendum – held in advance of the main motion. The tacit assumption is that the customs arrangement may be adopted by a majority of MPs but the referendum would not.
If Labour then abstained on the final vote, the optimists contend, the Agreement would be passed, the European Parliament would hold an emergency session to approve it and the UK would not in the end have to participate in European Parliament elections which are otherwise due on May 23. The country would leave the political apparatus of the EU on June 1. Mrs May would submit her resignation shortly after that date and a new Prime Minister would be installed by early-mid July.
On the basis of all that we have experienced so far BVCA Insight would not bet a lot of money on the above outcome occurring. It will not even be attempted, if it is thought realistic to try, until after the local elections on May 2nd. It would only become an option if both front benches concluded that the idea of holding a European Parliament election in the UK on May 23rd was so mutually catastrophic that it had to be avoided at all costs. The return of Nigel Farage through the Brexit Party might spook the Conservatives into that conclusion. While the hard-line remain/second referendum contingent stands split across several competing political parties, by contrast, Labour might not be so worried.
What is the significance of the local council elections being held in England this year?
There are local elections across much of England (but not London) on May 2nd but not in Scotland or in Wales (bar the odd by-election). There are also, as will be outlined, lots held in Northern Ireland.
These were always likely to be challenging council elections for the Conservative Party. They involve the largest number of individual council seats in England of the four-year local government “cycle”. They are disproportionately in parts of the country that in a typical year would be thought of as Tory territory but not so solidly loyal to the party that substantial protest votes could not be envisaged. Most awkwardly of all, the overwhelming majority of the seats involved were last fought in 2015, at the same time as the general election of that year, when the Conservatives did better than expected, Labour under performed, the Liberal Democrats were crushed and UKIP struggled to convert a very respectable percentage of the national vote in to actual representation in English council chambers.
To offer some numbers to underline the politics of what may be witnessed a week tomorrow. In May 2015, the Conservatives won 5,521 council seats, Labour obtained 2,278, the Liberal Democrats 658 and UKIP 176. Mrs May’s party is hence defending the clear majority of the 8,773 council seats (if you throw in 39 council by-elections also being conducted, then 8,812 in total). The fear among her colleagues is less of wholesale defections to other contenders but that a party enduring a Brexit-inducted shock might find it difficult to motivate its natural supporters to turn out to the polling stations. In which case it would be an example of political death by abstention. It is highly likely that the Conservatives will lose seats (possibly hundreds of them), Labour should make gains (although on what scale is much harder to anticipate) and the Liberal Democrats should see a very decent recovery in terms of seats won from what was pretty much their lowest moment of recent times. Just how bad the result is will have a sizeable impact on whether the Cabinet agrees to press ahead with a series of votes in the House of Commons which might deliver a route to a swifter Brexit but only at the price of some uncomfortable language around customs policy as part of the package.
There are some saving graces for the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party. The first is that neither the Brexit Party (nor, for that matter, Change UK) will be on the ballot paper for these local elections. The options for disgruntled pro-Brexit Conservatives are hence limited. The second is that there are far more Conservative candidates in these contests than the champions of any other party. The disparity is striking. The Conservatives are fighting 96% of seats, Labour 77%, the Lib Dems only 53%, the Greens 30% and UKIP 16%. This could prove crucial. Finally, such is the febrile condition of the Conservative Party at the moment that were the losses to fall “only” in the range of 200-300 seats then this would be regarded as a relative triumph. One more heave on Brexit might be viable.
The results in Northern Ireland are what might prove transformative to the politics of Brexit.
The real joker in the pack is Northern Ireland. Every council seat (462) in all eleven councils are up for election on May 2nd. The electoral system deployed is the single transferable vote. This means that it might be well into the weekend after the Thursday that the final tally is confirmed. Nonetheless, the DUP (which won 130 of these council seats in 2014 at the last time of asking) is very nervous that its stance on Brexit will cause it to lose support to the Ulster Unionist Party (it won 88 seats in 2014) and the non-sectarian Alliance Party (32 seats in 2014), and that it might even end up with a smaller number than Sinn Fein (105 seats in 2014). If that happens, then the pressure on it to find a means of endorsing a new version of the Withdrawal Agreement will be huge. Whether it is ready to do so next month under this Prime Minister or deems it more expedient to hold off until July and strike a deal with an incoming successor is the latest “known unknown” of this whole saga.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA