Silly Season? Speculation about a new ‘centre party’ may seem less strange next late August

August has almost come to its conclusion. The House of Commons returns next week (albeit briefly) and schools across England will shortly re-open. The media having spent the past few weeks in near desperation for something to write about – hence the traditional ‘Silly Season’ spate of stories – should finally have some more substantial stories to report and subject to their version of analysis. If all else fails, Brexit will be the show that runs and runs all the way up to Christmas (possibly beyond). For those who have been on shift in Westminster, in particular, this will come as an enormous relief.
One of the few arguments that has surfaced to occupy newsprint has been the possibility of a totally new ‘centre party’ emerging. It has not been awarded much traction because the difficulties with it are so obvious. It has, nonetheless, been considered worthy of contemplation. A couple of former Shadow Cabinet members (Chris Leslie, briefly Shadow Chancellor in 2015, and Chuka Umunna, the Shadow Business Secretary from 2011 and 2015) have had to deny being the chief conspirators. It has been suggested that the well-funded People’s Vote campaign, which is seeking a referendum on the final Brexit deal, could serve as a form of prototype for a completely novel political movement. Sections of the commentariat have mused on what the prospects might be for such an enterprise.
The starting point for any calculation of its chances would be dispiriting. The UK electoral system alone is a massive barrier to entry. There is also the precedent of the SDP’s failure in the 1980s. Furthermore, even those who favour the notion seem to be divided about where precisely in the political spectrum it would be placed, who would lead it and what its policy proposition would be. These are quite sizeable questions not to have secured a consensus on before launching any party.
Yet despite all this, like alien life, the possibility remains out there. It will not be explored seriously until either the United Kingdom has left the European Union on 29 March 2019 or something has occurred to prevent that rendezvous with destiny occurring (which is highly improbable). Talk of it has been stoked by three factors. The most manifest is Brexit, opposition to which unites moderate Labour, the Liberal Democrats and moderate Conservatives. The second is the belief that striking new trends in politics at home and abroad make an attack upon the traditional system a plausible proposition. The third is the sense that there are many Labour MPs so disconnected from their own party under Jeremy Corbyn and at such high risk of deselection that they have very little to lose from abandoning ship and taking off on their own, however unlikely the chances might be of succeeding.
All of which means that by this time next year – when the Remain cause will have had to move on from advocating a second referendum to prevent Brexit, to preparing the ground for another ballot at some point in the 2020s when the UK might want to re-join the European Union once more – the chance of an attempt at something new will probably be a much more credible notion. To reach that stage, though, the would-be pioneers have to choose between three models of any ‘centre party.’
Model A: Alternative Labour
The first option would be for discontented Labour MPs to break from their party but insist that they were the true representatives of it. In the spirit of the Jacobites after 1688, or more cheeringly, the defeated Royalists from 1649-1660, they would insist that they constituted legitimacy and that those who had assumed their places were the forces of usurpation. This means calling themselves either ‘Real Labour’ or ‘True Labour’ or something similar and fighting the Corbynistas for the right to be deemed the “proper” Labour Party.
While it would be a political force which was close to the centre ground of politics and might appeal not only to aggrieved Labour supporters but others who had been content to vote Labour under Tony Blair but not thereafter, it would not really be focused on attracting Liberal Democrats or alienated Conservatives. It would have the express intention of knocking the Labour Party (Momentum Version) out of Parliament and should it manage to do so, it would then presumably aim to reunite most of the historic centre-left under the Labour banner.
Model B: En Marche! (UK-style)
This approach would be more radical. It would imply that the Labour Party was not merely under occupation but had died as a consequence. It would involve a completely new ‘centre party’ that transcended all past left-right divisions. It would be constructed in the spirit of En Marche!, the entity verging on a fan club that Emmanuel Macron created in his winning bid to be President of France last year and which then delivered him a majority in the subsequent National Assembly vote. It would be Momentum for Moderates – an anti-system political party rooted in the centre ground. The idea might well have appeal and it would not be hard to drum up opinion poll data which would indicate evidence that it could sweep the electorate.
Even allowing for the Berlin Wall that is the UK electoral system, the problems with such a project are utterly daunting. France has a tradition of personality-led parties. Charles de Gaulle managed to lead a Gaullist Party while not being a member of it. Valéry Giscard d’Estaing became French President by a means not dissimilar to that which Mr Macron would emulate some 43 years later. François Mitterrand built the French Socialist Party in his own image. To a degree, both Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy reconstructed the French Right around themselves. Indeed, it is François Hollande, a Socialist Party insider to the core, who is the one exception in the Fifth Republic.
The United Kingdom is not France. It has no such history to build on. Furthermore, En Marche! may have a very limited lifespan. Mr Macron obtained his office due to a fluke. He benefited from the extreme unpopularity of Mr Hollande and the scandals that destroyed the candidature of François Fillon. His approval rating today is around 27%. He may crash and burn. Besides which, who is the British Macron? Who will join their crusade? Who will finance the effort? A totally new centre party in the United Kingdom designed from literally nothing may be doomed.
Model C: Revitalised Liberal Democrats
Which leaves just one other option. Taking an almost centre party that actually exists, the Liberal Democrats, and making it the kernel of a new force in politics. The Liberal Democrats might not have won many votes in 2017 (less than 7.5% nationally) or have many MPs (13 in total) but they do have the essentials of an organisation and some sort of brand, and courtesy of Nick Clegg are much closer to the middle of the ideological spectrum than they used to be. Why not see if they can be revived?
It is Sir Vince Cable’s mission in life to convince both those flirting with an Alternative Labour or tempted by an En Marche! (UK version) that they should come towards him instead. Proof of this will come in a speech he is due to deliver next week in which he will launch a consultation over the leadership rules for his party. He will assert that it should be possible for an individual to stand to be at the helm of the Liberal Democrats without already being an MP (a stance that will appeal to the En Marche! types) and that it should be possible to vote for the party leader either by being a full member or a ‘Registered Supporter’ for at least 12 months (this might make it easier for Labour MPs and activists to defect to the Liberal Democrats).
The undeclared hint in all this is that if such changes are adopted, he would stand down a year or so before any 2022 election (at which time he would be 79 years old) and allow a younger, different, perhaps completely fresh figure with little involvement in the Liberal Democrats until now, to be the party’s contender for Prime Minister.
Right now, it sounds like an exceptionally long shot of a strategy. By late August 2019, possibly not.
Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA