21 Feb 2018

Stalemate? The Government seems to be in some difficulties but the opinion polls are not moving

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The past several months have been extremely challenging for the Prime Minister and Government. The shock outcome of the surprise June 2017 election appeared to have sapped ministers of any moral authority as well as depriving them of a reliably stable majority inside the House of Commons.

Theresa May’s tenure in 10 Downing Street has become a matter of almost constant speculation. Parliament is tied up by Brexit-related legislation. The wider process of leaving the European Union is plainly not proving to be a straightforward exercise. The economy is comparatively soft and real wages again appear to be declining. A number of Cabinet members have been obliged to resign due to allegations of misconduct. On the face of it, therefore, comparisons with the Callaghan era in the late 1970s or with the Major administration in the mid-1990s or Gordon Brown after October 2007 would appear to be entirely legitimate. All three survived to face the voters but then lost office.

The important exception here, however, is the evidence of the opinion polls. In all of those three past examples, the principal opposition party established enormous leads in the surveys of voting intentions which would erode somewhat as polling day approached but still prove to be decisive. That is simply not true in February 2018. The average of the polls is scarcely different to the count on 8 June last year. If there has been any movement at all in the past three months it has been a little to the advantage of the Conservative Party. A form of stalemate appears to have set in. Right now, it is hard to envisage what might break it. The current condition of the parties and polls could endure. What is happening beneath the surface of the numbers and what does it mean for the main parties?

The Conservative Party

The Conservative percentage in the polls has been remarkably stable during Mrs May’s time as leader. She received a bounce in public opinion after replacing David Cameron in July 2016 with the Conservatives moving from an average score in the mid-30%s to one in the early-40%s, with that additional support being drawn mostly from ex-UKIP backers and a little from ex-Labour Leave voters with severe doubts about Jeremy Corbyn.

When she called the election on 18 April last year, the seven opinion polls that had been published that month had an average Conservative score of 43.3%. For all of the consensus that she and her party fought an utterly dreadful election campaign, the actual Conservative tally on election night was almost identical to this at 42.4%. The real story of the election was a Labour surge at the expense of UKIP, Liberal Democrats and Greens. Mr Corbyn gained almost 15 percentage points in scarcely two months from these three rival forces.

The Conservative position in percentage terms is, to borrow a phrase, ‘strong and stable’. It is also rooted in age rather than in social class. Those older voters are probably less likely to change their minds or their affiliations than younger electors. Mrs May’s approval rating among her own party supporters is robust, a factor that explains why she is still the Prime Minister. Conservatives do not believe that anyone else can handle Brexit any better and overwhelmingly still want to see the UK depart from the EU. No alternative leader appears to have much appeal to them. Any assumption that this Government is doomed to defeat in 2022 (or whenever the next election turns out to be held) is not based on much hard evidence.

While it is unlikely that Mrs May will be the party leader at the time of that contest, it cannot truthfully be claimed that she is a liability now. As long as this remains the case then in all probability she will remain in her place if she wants to. The local elections to be held in May will not be the triumph for the Conservatives that those that occurred in May 2017 were (the high-point of the election campaign for the Prime Minister) but when compared with May 2014 (the last time the same seats were fought) they will be decent.

The Labour Party

The above analysis is starting to dawn on more thoughtful figures in the Labour Party. In the immediate aftermath of their unexpected election performance last year, many of those in the Corbyn camp thought that all they had to do was wait before power was thrust into their hands. Matters are proving more complicated than that.

Mr Corbyn and his Momentum allies are in the process of assuming full control over every aspect of the party machine but still find themselves saddled with large numbers of MPs who are fundamentally opposed to them. The party is thus in the midst of a civil war by stealth. The PLP and wider party are also hopelessly divided over Brexit, with it remaining unclear what even the most basic stance is on the single market and the customs union.

This is dangerous territory for the leadership because there is a stark generational divide among the hard Left: between those like Mr Corbyn and John McDonnell, who have never had enthusiasm for the EU, and their much younger supporters, who are very much on the Remain side of the debate and in this respect alone are much closer to Blairite Members of Parliament than to the Corbynites. This explains why the Labour moderates are pushing the issue as vigorously as they are at present. They also hope to strike an alliance with the trade unions who are also after the very softest of Brexits.

The May elections also constitute a test for Mr Corbyn that he may fail. The weight of expectations is that Labour should do spectacularly well, not least because the most prominent contests are for the London boroughs and Labour did astonishingly well in the capital city at the June polling day. London has, nevertheless, been trending towards Labour for some time as its population has become larger, younger and less white. Labour did well in the 2014 borough ballot, the 2015 general election, the 2016 Mayoral and Assembly election, as well as the election last year. Turnout is also bound to be much lower this year than last (possibly down by virtually a half). This will assist the Conservatives. There is hence a real risk for Mr Corbyn that commentators might conclude that he has peaked. As he would be 72 in 2022 if he continues as leader, speculation about his position might yet crank up. Some of his own adherents might want him to leave if they are sure they can control the succession.

The Liberal Democrats

Sir Vince Cable has been operating largely under the radar since his unopposed election. The polls would suggest that there has been no recovery at all in his party’s fortunes. The pattern in local by-elections, in contrast, suggests that there is some revival at work. Sir Vince is likely to enjoy a May boost to his standing as the Liberal Democrats should do reasonably well in the council battles, not least because they did so badly in the same places in May 2014 that an improvement is assured.

This will assist him with what is his real undertaking. He has to use his support for a second ballot on Brexit as bait to moderates in the Labour Party if they decide they can no longer continue to be in the same space as Mr Corbyn and Momentum.

Their fear about breaking from Labour is that it would merely be a repeat of 1981 when the SDP split from the increasingly Bennite Labour Party but could not establish itself as a force in the House of Commons. Sir Vince is telling anyone in Labour’s ranks at Westminster who will listen that the lesson that should be learnt from that experience is that forming another centrist political party would indeed be foolhardy and also unnecessary. His thesis is that the Liberal Democrats are the natural home for pro-European Labour moderates. It is still a long-shot that he can convince any serious number of Labour MPs to contemplate defecting to him. Yet it is not a complete impossibility. It would be a real game-changer if it were to come about. For that reason alone, the Liberal Democrats are worth more attention that they are today receiving.

Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA


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