19 Jul 2017

The 1.85% Man. Cable has the chance to make the Liberal Democrats a significant player again

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The opportunity to lead a political party that has 12 out of 650 MPs (or 1.85%, rounded up) and at the age of 74 might not appear to be that enticing a proposition. Despite this, Sir Vince Cable will, barring a last-minute unexpected challenge, find himself elected unopposed as the leader of the Liberal Democrats tomorrow. This will come almost a decade after he declined to enter the 2007 leadership contest, which was narrowly won by Nick Clegg, on the basis that his age would be too much of an issue for him. The cult of youth in British politics is clearly not what it was.

In reality, Sir Vince appreciates that age is an issue. He is assisted in this regard, however, by three factors. The first is that with Labour led by Jeremy Corbyn, who is currently 68, and the possibility that the Conservatives might be headed by David Davis, who will be 69 in December, he is not so far from the mainstream.

The second is that while he would probably be considered too old to offer himself to the electorate if this Parliament runs its full four or five year course when he would be 78 or 79 – and thus would ultimately serve as an interim figure (much as Ming Campbell did in 2006-2007) – there is a strong sense at Westminster that there might be an election in May 2019, after Brexit has been determined one way or another. In those circumstances, Sir Vince could probably take his party into that contest.

Finally, in the real world the leader of the Liberal Democrats (especially with just 12 seats) is not truly offering himself to the people as their Prime Minister. Different standards apply.

Why, though, would he want the role and the responsibility? Actually, there are sound reasons for him to believe that he personally and his political party more broadly could have an impact over the next two years, at least, that is disproportionately large compared with their numbers in the House of Commons. And of the options which were theoretically available to the Liberal Democrats, Sir Vince is the individual best placed to make the most of that possible opportunity, hence his coronation.

There are three reasons why the new leader might prove to be somewhat more than a 1.85% man.

He will be viewed as a much more serious and substantial figure than his predecessor

Tim Farron’s tenure as Liberal Democrat leader was doomed almost from the outset. He had chosen not to serve in the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. This might have been a shrewd piece of positioning in personal terms, but it meant that the Liberal Democrats went from having a leader who had been the Deputy Prime Minister at the heart of Whitehall for five years to one with no track record in government whatsoever. This, plus the fall to only eight MPs after the 2015 election, acted to reinforce a sense of irrelevance.

Furthermore, the political space that Mr Farron instinctively felt that he could and should occupy – a populist stance to the left of where Labour had been under Ed Miliband – was taken from him once Jeremy Corbyn became the Leader of the Opposition. With no credible terrain to the left of Labour available, Mr Farron had little choice but to duplicate the Clegg strategy of seeking to sit between the two major parties ideologically, even if that was not natural territory for him. Throw in his obvious torment about how to reconcile his evangelical Christianity with the norms of a highly secular party, media, and prevailing culture, and he was in trouble.

Even so, it was a lamentable general election campaign that saw the Liberal Democrats actually fall back in terms of the national vote won and only increase their seats from 8 to 12 by a fluke of numbers. If Mr Farron had not jumped by issuing his resignation, then he would probably have been pushed out.

Sir Vince is in a very different position. He has been an MP for almost two decades and before then had a substantial career in both the public and private sectors as an economist. He earned his spurs as the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman warning about the dangers of a debt-induced crash in the years running up to the global financial crisis. He was a senior Cabinet Minister for five years as Business Secretary. He is an experienced and solid media performer. He will be invited to comment more often on a wider range of subjects than Mr Farron. He will punch above his weight.

He can carve out his own distinct political position in the Brexit debate

Mr Farron tried to fashion himself as a leader for those who backed Remain in the 2016 referendum but never achieved that status. Sir Vince can. He is likely to harden his party’s position that a second ballot should be held before the UK leaves the European Union and that the Government should not head towards a departure on terms that are manifestly undesirable and pull the brake if necessary. While avoiding Brexit altogether remains a long shot, there are far more voters than the 7.4% who backed the Liberal Democrats at the polls last month who would not shed many tears if the whole enterprise were somehow to be abandoned. They have not had a plausible figure making that case.

Sir Vince is also likely to have a monopoly on such an argument. The Government is divided between those favouring a softer and a harder Brexit but the idea of a second referendum on the matter is, for now at least, one that is impossible for any faction to contemplate. While Jeremy Corbyn is at the helm, the leadership of the Labour Party is not going to challenge the referendum result either but will content itself with criticising whatever ministers manage to extract from the negotiations. Even Mr Corbyn’s many critics inside his parliamentary party are not campaigning for a second look at the Brexit scenario but instead for the UK to leave the EU but remain in the single market and customs union (even though there is no state in Europe that is not in the EU yet is in these two structures). The SNP cannot bang the drum for a second ballot on the EU without attracting the suspicion that it is really much more interested in repeating the independence referendum.

If the economy cools and the Brexit process becomes very bumpy, Sir Vince could find himself as the Brexit rebel with a cause. It would be amazing if Brexit occurred so smoothly that was no market for the Liberal Democrats.

In a Hung Parliament, even small parliamentary numbers can be consequential

Ideally, the Liberal Democrats would, of course, prefer to have more than a dozen MPs to boast of. Yet in many ways politically, 12 MPs in a Parliament with no majority for the Government is more consequential than having 50 MPs in a Parliament where the Conservatives had a robust majority. The deal between Theresa May and the DUP covers votes of confidence, the final vote on budgets, Brexit and security matters and that leaves plenty of other issues where the bargain does not apply. Furthermore, DUP MPs are not the most consistent and reliable attenders at the House of Commons if the matter of the day has no value to Northern Ireland.

Whether the Conservatives win or lose on certain votes or feel obliged to compromise to avoid defeat thus depends on tight arithmetic. A very disciplined 12 MPs who choose their battles astutely can become critical players. A simple indicator of this were the votes held on the Queen’s Speech moved by the major parties. Mrs May won by 14. Mr Corbyn’s alternative Queen’s Speech was lost by 26. The difference being Lib Dem abstentions.

There is also the House of Lords to consider. Here, the Liberal Democrats with 101 out of 804 peers are vastly over-represented in a chamber where no party is anywhere close to an overall majority. The Lib Dems also tend to be young by the standards of the Upper House and frequent participants in votes, which adds to their clout in practice. Sir Vince and Lord Newby, the Liberal Democrat leader in the House of Lords, can again be relied on to pick their fights with care and do so effectively. At a minimum, by 2019 Sir Vince has the chance of being the party leader with the best approval ratings from the public as whole and look like the one who is most enjoying himself in this odd Parliament.


Tim Hames
Director General, BVCA


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