02 Nov 2016

The other November election. The primary on the French Right is fundamental for UK politics

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By this time next week, we should know the identity of the next President of the United States and (probably) partisan control over Congress. While this is obviously a seminal event for international politics, the impact for the United Kingdom and especially the Brexit process will be rather limited, especially if Hillary Clinton, still the favourite (despite the FBI), a known quantity, (re-) enters the White House.

The more salient electoral contests from a Whitehall and Westminster vantage point are those in France next Spring and Germany in early Autumn. These will have a fundamental impact on the stance which the EU takes toward its negotiations with the UK over its departure and its future relationship with it.

Of the two countries, the battle for power in Paris is the more central in that the prospect of a change of administration there appears to be much higher than in Berlin where it is widely assumed that Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats will remain in office. In turn, this means that the identity of the main candidate of the French Right (who were renamed ‘Les Republicans’ last year) is of crucial significance to Theresa May and her administration. That figure will emerge from a primary contest to take place this month on Sunday the 20th with, assuming that no contender wins an outright majority on the first round, a final ballot occurring on Sunday the 27th.

Why is the Republican Primary so important?

It is not, of course, impossible that François Hollande could be re-elected as President. On available evidence, though, this would require a miracle on the scale of the feeding of the 5,000. He has had a turbulent time in office, executing a spectacular change of direction in economic policy (but with no similarly dramatic impact on the economy) and has faced a slew of terrorist atrocities which at first led to the public rallying behind him but have since then been corrosive to his standing.

His approval rating fell earlier this year to a meagre 14% (Richard Nixon on the day that he resigned in disgrace from the American Presidency had an approval rating of 23%) and there is little sign of a substantial improvement forthcoming. The polls suggest that he would struggle to be one of the two top candidates to make it from the first round on 23 April to the second and decisive contest on 7 May, with Marine Le Pen of the National Front presently poised to defeat him for that position. It is possible that he might come in fourth on the first ballot if Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a veteran figure standing for the Left Party, who won more than 11% of the first ballot vote in 2012, were to outperform expectations and if the Socialist vote were to be fragmented by centrist possibilities such as Emmanuel Macron, a former Hollande Cabinet member, who might stand, or by the Green Party.

It could be worse still. M. Hollande might not get that far as the Socialist Party is due to hold its own primary election in January and the incumbent President is currently tied in the polls for that one with Arnaud Montebourg, who once served as his Minister for Industrial Renewal and the Economy. It is even possible that if abject humiliation appears inevitable, the President does not even choose to offer himself for re-election, citing a 2012 campaign promise not to seek a second term if he did not reduce unemployment in his first one (it is a matter of definition as to whether he will have achieved that cut by April).

An alternative Socialist might do a little better but for now it looks as if the Republican Party champion will face Ms Le Pen on 7 May and that the centre-left will (albeit reluctantly) vote to block the far right as they did in similar circumstances in 2002 when President Chirac faced Jean-Marie Le Pen in the ultimate election. The presidential contest will be followed by parliamentary elections a few weeks later at which it seems probable that the Republicans will win a thumping majority. This renders the Republican Primary held this month in essence the real election.

Who will win the Republican Primary?

There are a host of contenders but only two figures who seem to be plausible victors. They are Alain Juppé, the favourite at the moment, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the former President who lost in 2012. M. Juppé’s status as the front-runner is in many senses surprising. He is a very long-standing figure, now aged 71, in French public life. He was Minister of the Budget as far back as 1986-1988, returned to the Cabinet as Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1993-1995, became Prime Minister under M. Chirac from 1995 to 1997 and had a third tour of duty as Minister for Defence (2010-2011) and Minister for Foreign Affairs (again) from 2011-2012. For most of this period he has been Mayor of Bordeaux too. A senior civil servant at the start of his career, he is almost the personification of the establishment.

Yet he has far from an unchequered or uncontroversial record. As Prime Minister he introduced a set of welfare reforms which triggered street protests on a scale not seen since 1968, with his popularity plummeting as a consequence. The proposals then had to be withdrawn and President Chirac felt obliged to attempt to restore his authority by calling early National Assembly elections in 1997. This proved to be an epic miscalculation as the Socialists triumphed, obliging M. Chirac to fire M. Juppé as Prime Minister and install the centre-left Lionel Jospin in his place. A decade later, M. Juppé was in hotter water still after being convicted of the abuse of public funds (the sentence was reduced on appeal) and compelled to (temporarily as it turned out) surrender all office. Yet opinion surveys as of now indicate that he is the most popular single politician in France not so much on the basis of policy (on which he can be hazy) but because he looks and sounds presidential (and is not wed to a model).

He is far from home and dry in the primary, however. His advantage over M. Sarkozy has narrowed and could yet be overturned. The primary, in which any citizen may participate not merely members of the political party concerned, is an unprecedented event in French centre-right politics. Turnout is difficult to predict with any confidence. The ex-President may be a polarising figure with plenty of his own scandals surrounding his candidature but he is an energetic and formidable campaigner who is prepared to produce promises by the plenty to court approval. His admirers may be fewer in number than M. Juppé’s but more motivated to vote on what might prove a dark and wet November Sunday. It would be sensible to plan on the basis that either of the two men might emerge as the President.

Who would the British Government prefer to win?

It has no official position (naturally) but there will be those close to the Brexit process who might be silently praying that M. Sarkozy can pull off a return to the Élysée Palace. This is for several reasons. He has historically been comparatively sympathetic to Anglo-Saxon thinking by the standards of the French elite (although he will publicly say the precise opposite if needed). He is more willing to take a tougher stance on immigration and integration than his rival and this may make him sympathetic to Mrs May’s strong sense that she must match her own popular sentiment in the same spheres.

He is not an enthusiast for the institutions of Brussels, preferring instead that the EU takes its steer from Paris and Berlin. It is not at all hard to imagine him forging an alliance with Angela Merkel to wrestle control over the Brexit dialogue from Jean-Claude Juncker, whereas the far more patrician M. Juppé is more empathetic towards the European Commission and the European Parliament.

M. Sarkozy is hardly a ‘soft touch’ option for Mrs May (he will strive to take the City to the proverbial cleaners over the dominance of London-based banks and the Stock Exchange on Euro-related trading) but is probably the best of the possible French presidents from a British perspective. If the UK PM is a lucky lady, she will end the month with the prospect of dealing with Mrs Clinton and M. Sarkozy next year. If, by contrast, she is stuck with Donald Trump and M. Juppé, then 2017 may prove a tad challenging.

Tim Hames, Director General, BVCA

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