Michael Moore's Outlook on the UK government’s investment policy direction

There was a time when podcasts were not a thing. But frankly who remembers when that was. The phenomenon is so pervasive that no emptying of the dishwasher, dog walk or commute on the train is complete without one.

And who cares if their podcast feed stretches back three months and lacks any sense of coherence? Freed from the tyranny of old fashioned ‘consume-it-live-or-lose-it’ radio, this is all about slow news, trenchant opinions and obsessive sports fandom (to offer an unrequested insight into my own selection).

It’s a million miles from X, and even LinkedIn. Podcast time is measured by dates on the calendar, rather than the nano-second attention span of social media. And yet. The madness that is 2025 means that more and more podcasts now tell us upfront when they were recorded, for fear that even an early listener will find the content out of date.

So pity the writer of the monthly column. OK, that may be a stretch. But at least bear in mind that they are written with good intentions and in good faith that they will somehow be relevant and topical.

You may infer, not unreasonably, that this is (yet again) all about Mr Trump. And he is indeed the north star of this year’s wild news agenda. So it is a lot about him. But the UK is not immune to its national version of this mania.

The government has a majority of 165 in Parliament and four more years to pursue its agenda. In historic terms this is one of the strongest positions a Prime Minister has ever enjoyed in Britain. But as I write this (date stamp 27th June), a significant rebellion by the PM’s backbench colleagues is anticipated on welfare reform, which could wipe the majority out, even if only temporarily.

Alternatively, concessions will be made, defeat will be avoided, but the balance of influence within the governing party might take a tilt away from No10.

That balance of influence matters. All parties march to a philosophical beat. One influenced by their values, history, voter coalitions and much else. Hopes that governments can transpose the beat from opposition to the corridors of power are often disappointed because hard choices and the messiness of politics get in the way.

These are still early days in a five year Parliament. So this won’t be the last major challenge to the Prime Minister and his cabinet. But in the quieter moments, ministers are now encouraged that they can point to a swathe of frameworks and decisions which offer greater clarity for investors and businesses alike about the direction of policy travel for the next few years.

There’s been a Spending Review which shows where the financial and policy bets are being placed in the economy and elsewhere. The British Business Bank is a big winner, something of vital significance to the private capital industry and innovative businesses in all parts of the country.

There’s an Industrial Strategy, too, which is a good thing to my mind. That’s not a judgement on its contents (though the inclusion of financial services for the first time ever is definitely a good thing). I simply think that it is better to see ministers write down what they believe are the country’s top economic priorities, rather than leave us all guessing.

And by the middle of the month (I‘ve mentally moved into July as I write this) we will have a financial services strategy focused on maintaining the UK’s competitiveness in a field where it has long been a global leader. Three cheers for that, almost irrespective of what is in it. (With the emphasis there on ‘almost’ – the policies and detail will matter hugely…)

Talking of which, we are nearing the anniversary (I have slipped back into June) of the start of the great carried interest reform journey. The industry has been in near permanent session over the past 12 months as the government and officials have developed their thinking. The tax rate is up, but not to the catastrophic levels some feared. The switch from capital gains to income tax treatment has created huge challenges, but there have been pragmatic mitigations introduced and now we await draft legislation to see what more fine tuning can be done.

Bottom line, we have been relentlessly focused on maintaining the UK’s tax competitiveness and the attractiveness of the country to highly mobile international investment professionals. The kind who are at the heart of private capital, nimbly investing for the long term, as they listen to their podcasts and tune out the social media noise of a very mad world. Not a bad strategy to stick with, perhaps.

Michael Moore
Chief Executive, BVCA

This article was originally published on 11 July 2025 on the Private Equity News website here.