Michael Moore’s Outlook on the case for optimism

British people going on about the weather is tedious for everyone, even us. And for a country with the variability we experience, it is quite remarkable how mentally unprepared we seem to be for its inherent changeability.

But we don’t cope very well when the weather stays the same, either, and remember it forever. The ‘summer of 1976’ was the hottest of my childhood and has been talked about ever since (and not just by me). Maybe after the summer we have just had, 2025 will replace it in the popular imagination.

Regardless of what has gone before it, every September ushers in change. And the mood swing can be as important as that of the weather.

This year has not, of course, lacked its fair share of mood swings in private equity and elsewhere in the UK economy. But a specific kind of sentiment, about the UK as a place to do business, is something that continues to be debated almost as fiercely as our climate.

In fairness, this is not new. The intensity increased nearly a decade ago after the Brexit vote and was sustained through the negotiations and ever since.

Tax, public finances, inflation, interest rates, regulatory burdens and much else became even more salient through the pandemic and in the energy crisis which followed the invasion of Ukraine.

And the change of government a year ago brought a fresh political dimension to the debate. Now, with the return of Parliament after the summer recess, and the run of party conferences, UK politics as a whole is back in the spotlight.

There’s plenty to talk about. And while tax policy may not always have hogged centre stage in the political headlines over the past few weeks, it has rarely been far away.

The suggestions of a ‘wealth tax’, which I wrote about last time, have faded away, with the senior cabinet minister, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, memorably dismissing the idea as ‘daft’.  

But the parlour game of ‘what taxes are left for the Chancellor to raise?’ has still kept jaundiced minds amused. And will do so until the Autumn Budget has been and gone.

Plainly, the UK is not alone in facing tough fiscal choices at a time when demands for increased spending on public services, sit uneasily alongside the difficulty of keeping tax at acceptable levels. The willingness of the French Prime Minister to call a confidence vote on this very issue underlines the widespread challenges.

But in terms of the attractiveness and competitiveness of the UK as a place to be based, and in which to invest, the industry will remain watchful for the direction of travel on tax, amongst a range of issues that shape decisions about the future.

That wider competitiveness is also important to the industry’s mood. Happily, we are not alone in thinking about it.

Ever since we introduced a ‘Competitiveness Scorecard’ to assess how attractive the UK is for the industry – for everyone from global allocators of capital, and the individuals and firms in our ecosystem, to the management teams in the businesses our industry backs, we have been pleased to see it is a focus for government and regulators, too.

And as we spend time at the main political party conferences this month, we will remain very focused on all of the key points affecting competitiveness.

But a series of meetings with private capital firms in London late in the summer offered me some wider perspective on the issues.

All the businesses in question originate outside the UK, including North America and across on the continent. Each has been growing their London presence in recent years, and see that continuing.

And while none is exactly thrilled about the recent changes to carried interest taxation, one hoped the sense of pragmatism accompanying the current implementation would follow through into the final legislation. For sure, we continue to engage very seriously to that end.

One of the others made a point of saying how bullish they remain about what the UK offers. In truth, they did not shy away from the challenges, or how Brexit in particular had altered previous judgements about the UK’s attractiveness. 

But their confidence in our private capital ecosystem, including its talent pool, and the UK’s long run political and economic stability, underpinned a clear view that there will be plenty of opportunity ahead.

In the UK this month, as we (not-so-secretly) relish the unpredictable nature of the returning autumn weather, and monitor the ebb and flow of the political debates, maintaining that optimism will remain vital.

Michael Moore
Chief Executive, BVCA

This article was originally published on 16 September 2025 on the Private Equity News website here.